Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 4/30/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 140, D-Backs 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Dodgers -110, D-Backs -110
• Total (Over/Under): 9.5

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 50%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 51.87%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 48.13%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

The Arizona Diamondbacks are gearing up to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in an exciting National League West matchup scheduled for April 30, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will have the home-field advantage, but they are struggling this season with a record of 13-16, indicating a tough campaign for the team. On the other hand, the Dodgers are having an outstanding season with a record of 18-12, showcasing their dominance in the league.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who has had a solid season so far. Montgomery has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.08. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and might not perform as well going forward. In contrast, the Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Landon Knack, who has struggled this season. Knack has also started two games, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.27. His xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges in upcoming games.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank ninth best in MLB this season, showcasing their overall talent. They rank 11th in team batting average and 19th in team home runs, indicating an average performance in these categories. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking third in MLB, which could be a significant advantage in the game. On the other hand, the Dodgers boast the second-best offense in MLB this season. They rank 12th in team batting average and second in team home runs, highlighting their power at the plate. However, their ranking in stolen bases is lower, sitting at 20th in the league.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Diamondbacks rank as the 25th best, which is considered a weak point for the team. In contrast, the Dodgers have one of the best bullpens, ranking sixth in MLB, giving them an advantage in late-game situations.

Considering the team's statistics and projections, the Diamondbacks will need to rely on their strong offense and hope that Montgomery can deliver another solid performance. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will aim to capitalize on their stellar season and the struggles of Landon Knack. With a game total of 9.5 runs, it is expected to be a high-scoring matchup.

In terms of betting odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, suggesting a close game. However, the Diamondbacks have a higher projected team total of 4.75 runs, indicating confidence in their offensive capabilities.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.291) suggests that Miguel Rojas has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .241 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the best on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's curveball rate has increased by 8.7% from last year to this one (22.2% to 30.9%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 112 games (+12.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 67 away games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)

Dodgers vs D-Backs Prediction: Dodgers 5.76 - D-Backs 5.25

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