Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium for the second game of their series. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season, currently holding a record of 42-29, while the Angels sit at 34-37 and are struggling to find their footing. In their last matchup, the Yankees' potent offense was stifled by the Angels, in a game the Angels won 1-0 in extra innings.

The Yankees' offense ranks 2nd in the league, an impressive statistic that highlights their ability to capitalize on pitchers' mistakes. They have already hit 109 home runs this season, which places them 2nd in MLB, creating a favorable matchup against Angels' starter Kyle Hendricks, who is known for being a high-flyball pitcher with a flyball percentage of 39%. This season, Hendricks has a troubling ERA of 5.20, and the Yankees’ lineup could easily exploit his tendency to give up fly balls, turning them into extra-base hits.

Yankees' Will Warren is projected to start and has been performing well overall, with a Power Rankings position of 81st among around 350 pitchers. Though his ERA of 4.86 isn’t stellar, his 3.33 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could show improvement moving forward. Warren's high strikeout rate of 28.6% may give him the edge against an Angels offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts.

Betting odds heavily favor the Yankees, who boast a moneyline of -245, indicating a strong implied probability of winning the game. With the Yankees’ excellent offense and a reliable bullpen ranked 5th overall, they’re well-positioned to secure another victory against the struggling Angels, who are significantly disadvantaged at 29th in bullpen rankings. As the game approaches, all eyes will be on whether the Yankees can continue their momentum and put pressure on the Angels, who have a lot to prove.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (85.5 mph) below where it was last year (87.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball bats like Mike Trout generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Will Warren.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Volpe has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.82 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 away games (+8.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+10.25 Units / 102% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.15, New York Yankees 5.83

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Will Warren - Yankees

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.