Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics Pick For 7/4/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roansy Contreras - Angels
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels face off on July 4, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum, both teams are struggling through a tough season. The Athletics, with a 32-56 record, and the Angels, at 36-49, are both languishing at the bottom of the American League West standings. This game marks the third in their series, and given their current form, it’s set to be an intriguing matchup, especially for those with a keen eye on betting odds.

The pitching duel features JP Sears for the Athletics and Roansy Contreras for the Angels. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both pitchers rank among the worst in the league. Sears, a lefty, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.3 walks. Meanwhile, Contreras, a right-hander, is expected to pitch 4.3 innings, giving up 2.3 earned runs, 4.2 hits, and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Athletics struggle with a team batting average that ranks 28th in MLB, but they do have some pop, ranking 8th in home runs. Zack Gelof has been a standout over the last week, hitting .308 with a 1.130 OPS, 5 runs, and 1 home run in just four games. The Angels, on the other hand, have a more balanced offense, ranking 18th in batting average and 12th in home runs. Logan O'Hoppe has been on fire, hitting .438 with a 1.313 OPS, 7 hits, and 2 home runs in his last five games.

The betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating a close game. Despite their poor season, the Athletics' implied team total stands at 4.25 runs, equal to the Angels'. With both pitchers struggling and offenses showing flashes of power, the game total is set at 8.5 runs, an average mark.

For those looking to bet, the Athletics' recent power surge, combined with Sears' slightly better innings projection, might give them an edge. However, with both teams performing poorly, this game is truly a toss-up, and bettors should tread carefully.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Roansy Contreras will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Drury is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears's 2106-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 9th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.J. Bleday may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brent Rooker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.83 vs Oakland Athletics 4.62

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