Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs Pick For 7/6/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On July 6, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Cubs, with a 41-48 record, are having a below-average season, while the Angels, at 36-51, are struggling mightily. Both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around in this matchup.

On the mound for the Cubs will be right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has had a tough season so far. He holds a 1-6 record with a dismal 7.48 ERA across 10 starts. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests that he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters on average. Despite his struggles, he might find some success against an Angels lineup that ranks 19th in team batting average.

The Angels will counter with left-hander Tyler Anderson, who has a 7-8 record and a solid 3.03 ERA over 17 starts. However, his 5.30 xFIP indicates he has been quite fortunate this season and could regress. Anderson is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters. His low strikeout rate (15.6 K%) could be an advantage against a Cubs offense that strikes out frequently (6th most in MLB), but his high walk rate (10.9 BB%) could be exploited by the patient Cubs hitters who rank 4th in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 20th overall, with notable struggles in batting average (#25) and home runs (#23). Their one bright spot has been their ability to steal bases, ranking 8th in MLB. Ian Happ has been the Cubs' standout hitter over the last week, batting .444 with a 1.621 OPS, 3 home runs, and 10 RBIs in 6 games.

The Angels' offense ranks 16th overall, with average rankings in batting average (#19) and home runs (#14). They also excel in stolen bases, ranking 8th. Logan O'Hoppe has been their best hitter over the last week, posting a .353 batting average and a .918 OPS in 5 games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored with a 57% chance to win, aligning with their implied win probability from the betting odds. The Cubs are expected to score 5.29 runs, while the Angels are projected to score 4.77 runs. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup could see plenty of offensive action.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Given that flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Tyler Anderson (39.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Miguel Sano has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (34.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks doesn't generate many whiffs (1st percentile K%) — great news for Sano.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (52.9% compared to 44.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Cody Bellinger is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 away games (+14.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.87 vs Chicago Cubs 4.39

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.