Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/1/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Kansas City Royals at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rays are currently struggling with a 14-16 record, while the Royals are faring better at 16-15. This game marks the third in their series, and the Rays will look to bounce back after a recent loss, aiming to improve their standing in the American League.

Tampa Bay's Shane Baz is projected to start, bringing a strong 3-0 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA into the game. Despite being ranked 40th among starting pitchers in MLB by advanced statistics, Baz has shown flashes of brilliance, although his 3.21 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some fortune this season. His average projections suggest he will pitch about 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, with a high strikeout rate of 31.6%. However, he faces a Royals offense that has the 5th fewest strikeouts, which could limit his effectiveness.

On the other hand, Kansas City's Seth Lugo is having an average season with a 2-3 record and a solid 3.08 ERA. Although Lugo's projections show he may pitch 6.1 innings and allow around 3.0 earned runs, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he might also be due for a downturn. The Royals offense, ranked 30th overall, has struggled significantly, particularly in power numbers, making it difficult for them to capitalize on Lugo's efforts.

With the Rays' offense ranked 15th in MLB, they have the potential to exploit Kansas City's weaknesses. The Rays are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Royals' 3.65. If Tampa Bay can capitalize on their offensive strengths while Baz controls the game on the mound, they could emerge victorious in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial advantage over flyball batters, Seth Lugo and his 42.3% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup squaring off against 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bobby Witt Jr.'s maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) has been 116.9 mph since the start of last season, grading out in the 98th percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz has gone to his curveball 13.3% more often this year (33.8%) than he did last season (20.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Typically, hitters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Seth Lugo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.25, Tampa Bay Rays 4.16

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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