Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Prediction 7/10/2024

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Royals vs Cardinals Game 2 Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals are set for the second game of their double-header today at Busch Stadium, marking an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams have had above-average seasons so far, with the Cardinals holding a 48-42 record and the Royals at 49-43. The Cardinals, fresh off a 6-0 shutout against the Nationals on July 8, will look to continue their momentum. Meanwhile, the Royals are coming off a dominant 10-1 win over the Rockies.

The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, who has been excellent this season with a 3.30 ERA and a 9-5 record over 16 starts. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings, Gray remains the #16 best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 2.74 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. On the other side, the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who has a solid 3.74 ERA and a 5-6 record across 15 starts. Wacha pitched well in his last outing, going 6 innings with 8 strikeouts and just 1 earned run.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 17th in MLB, which is an average ranking, but they have struggled with power, ranking 25th in home runs. Brendan Donovan has been their standout hitter with a .271 batting average this season. Willson Contreras has been hot recently, boasting a .292 average and a 1.160 OPS over the past week.

The Royals have an edge in team batting average, ranking 12th, and are 15th overall in offensive power. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their best hitter, sporting a .324 batting average and a .936 OPS this season. Witt has also been on fire over the last week, hitting .550 with a 1.545 OPS.

The Cardinals' bullpen has been a significant strength, ranked 5th by advanced stats, whereas the Royals' bullpen struggles, sitting at 23rd. This could play a crucial role late in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Cardinals with a win probability of 56%, slightly lower than their implied win probability of 58% based on current odds. With a projected score of 4.16 to 3.93 in favor of St. Louis, bettors might find value backing the Cardinals in this matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

This year, Michael Wacha has introduced a new pitch to his repertoire (a slider), throwing it on 6.9% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals (21.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2490 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2548 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.4) implies that Willson Contreras has been very fortunate this year with his 28.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.93 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.16

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