Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 9/12/2025
The Kansas City Royals and Philadelphia Phillies will open up a three-game series against each other on Friday night. The Phillies are coming off of a huge series sweep that has put them close to locking up the NL East title. They will look to hold off a Royals team that has been struggling down the stretch. Before the first pitch from Philly, you can find my Royals vs Phillies prediction below.
Our Royals vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 6:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs Walker Buehler
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia, FDSN-KC
Key Storylines
- The Phillies won four straight games at home over the New York Mets in their last series. That four-game sweep put the Phillies up by 11 games over the Mets in the NL East standings and could have very well decided the outcome of the NL East race.
- Kansas City enters this series 4.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. Their recent struggles have put them in a position where their margin for error is shrinking rapidly. Kansas City needs to stop the bleeding quickly or their playoff hopes will be gone sooner rather than later.
Pitching matchup
Michael Lorenzen is set to get the start for the Royals on Friday night. Lorenzen is 5-10 this season and has a 4.63 ERA. He will be opposed by Walker Buehler of the Phillies. Buehler has struggled this year between the Red Sox and Phillies. He is 7-7 with a 5.45 ERA. Both of these pitchers have had difficult years and this game could come down to which bullpen performs the best after short starts by both pitchers.
Recent team streaks
- The Phillies have won four games in a row coming into this matchup.
- Kansas City has dropped four of its last five games going into Friday night.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | To hit a HR |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Michael Lorenzen | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the start of the season series between the Royals and Phillies.
- The Royals are 23-18 in one-run games this season.
- Philadelphia is 49-23 at home in 2025.
- Kansas City is 34-38 in their road games this year.
Royals vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Royals 4 – Phillies 6
Win Probability: Royals 38% – Phillies 62%
Final Thoughts
I would expect that both starting pitchers will continue to struggle in this game. Both the Royals and Phillies both have power bats that could take advantage of the poor starting pitching. I’ll bet on this game being high-scoring and for this game to go over the total in Kansas City. Philadelphia should get the win here, but I’d rather take the over with Buehler on the mound for the Phils.
