Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 18, 2024, both teams are vying for critical wins as the season winds down. The Padres, with an impressive record of 86-65, currently sit firmly in playoff contention. Their strong performance contrasts with the Astros at 81-69, who have had an above-average season but are looking to kick it up a notch. Last night, the Astros beat the Padres in extra innings and will look for a repeat performance here.

The matchup features Padres' right-hander Dylan Cease, ranked 25th among all MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system, facing off against Astros' lefty Framber Valdez, who holds a much higher ranking at 12th. Cease has shown flashes of brilliance, with a solid 3.58 ERA this season, but he struggles with walks, averaging 1.9 per game—a stat that could hinder him against the Astros' disciplined hitters.

In contrast, Valdez brings a strong 2.91 ERA and a better overall performance, projecting to allow fewer earned runs and walks. With both pitchers averaging around 5.7 to 5.9 innings pitched per game, the focus will shift to the respective bullpens. The Padres' bullpen is rated 3rd in MLB, while the Astros sit at 9th, indicating a slightly better edge for San Diego as the game progresses.

Offensively, the Padres rank 7th overall in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that includes Jurickson Profar, who has been their standout hitter recently. Meanwhile, Houston’s Jason Heyward has also been solid but faces a tough challenge against the Padres’ high-strikeout pitching, especially given the Astros' low strikeout rate.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs and moneyline odds set at -110 for both sides, this game is expected to be a close contest, emphasizing the importance of every pitch and at-bat. As fans tune in, all eyes will be on how these two storied franchises battle it out on the diamond.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #4 HR venue among all major league parks — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

As it relates to his home runs, Kyle Tucker has had positive variance on his side this year. His 40.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Houston Astros (18.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has used his slider 8.4% more often this season (47%) than he did last year (38.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 136 games (+17.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+11.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.34 vs San Diego Padres 3.67

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.