Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 26, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position in the standings. The Phillies are currently dominant with a record of 76-54, sitting comfortably in a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Astros are holding steady at 70-60, having an above-average season but lacking the same urgency as the Phillies.

In their last outings, the Phillies and Astros both picked up wins on Sunday. The Phillies boast a powerful offense, ranked 7th in MLB, and excel particularly in team batting average (3rd) and home runs (6th). This offensive potency could prove vital as they face Ronel Blanco, who has struggled with control, evidenced by a high 9.9% walk rate. With a lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn, the Phillies are poised to capitalize on Blanco's weaknesses.

Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia, looking to continue his elite performance as he enters this matchup ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB. Wheeler's ERA of 2.73 showcases his effectiveness, even if his xFIP hints at potential regression. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs, which should set a solid foundation for the Phillies.

Conversely, the Astros will rely on Blanco, whose projections suggest a struggle against a high-powered Phillies lineup. The projections indicate the Phillies are favored to score around 5.25 runs, while the Astros are projected for just 3.61 runs. With these factors in mind, the Phillies appear to be not only the team's best bet for victory but also offer significant betting value compared to the current odds.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (62.4% this year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Meyers has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Astros projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .326 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2428 rpm is in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.2) implies that Bryce Harper has been lucky this year with his 31.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+15.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.65 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.23

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