Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On August 27, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Houston Astros in a pivotal interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are looking to solidify their positions as they head into the final stretch of the season, with the Phillies holding a strong record of 77-54, while the Astros sit at 70-61. Notably, the Phillies are coming off a successful outing, having won their last game over the Astros and showcasing their offensive prowess.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Justin Verlander for the Astros. Nola, currently ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a solid season with an 11-6 record and a commendable ERA of 3.45. However, his 4.03 FIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Nola is projected to pitch approximately 5.8 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.3 walks per game could be a concern.

On the other side, Verlander, ranked 51st in the league, has struggled somewhat with a 3-3 record and a 3.92 ERA. He’s projected to allow 3.1 earned runs in about 5.5 innings, with troubling projections of 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks, indicating he might face challenges against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 7th overall and 3rd in batting average.

The projections favor the Phillies, who are expected to score around 5.03 runs on average, while the Astros are projected for 4.55 runs. Given the Phillies' strong performance and home-field advantage, they are seen as the favorites in this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Victor Caratini has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given the 0.95 discrepancy between Aaron Nola's 8.30 K/9 and his 9.25 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform better in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Brandon Marsh has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+15.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.77 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.03

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