Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 5/11/2024

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristian Javier - Astros
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will take on the Houston Astros in an American League matchup at Comerica Park. The game is scheduled to be played on May 11, 2024. The Tigers, with a record of 19-19 this season, are having an average year. On the other hand, the Astros have struggled with a record of 14-24, making it a terrible season for them so far.

The Tigers will be the home team, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal. Skubal has been exceptional this season, boasting a perfect win/loss record of 4-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.90. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Nonetheless, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skubal is considered the best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his elite status.

On the other hand, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier. Javier has a win/loss record of 2-0 and an excellent ERA of 1.54 this season. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in his performance going forward.

Skubal, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a low-strikeout Astros offense. This matchup may give the Astros an advantage as Skubal might struggle to capitalize on his greatest strength. Javier, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a Tigers offense with minimal power. This may work in Javier's favor as the Tigers may struggle to convert his flyballs into home runs.

The Tigers' offense ranks poorly in MLB, coming in at 25th overall. They also rank low in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Astros' offense is one of the best in MLB, ranking 7th overall. They have a solid team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen rankings, the Tigers rank 14th best in MLB, while the Astros rank 20th. These rankings reflect the underlying talent of the bullpen, regardless of their actual performance this season.

The Tigers' best hitter this season has been Andy Ibanez, while the Astros' best hitter has been Kyle Tucker. Over the last seven games, Ibanez has excelled, recording 8 hits, 6 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, along with 1 stolen base. Tucker has been impressive as well, contributing 5 runs, 5 RBIs, and 4 home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers are favored to win this game with a moneyline set at -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. The Astros have a moneyline set at +115, with an implied win probability of 45%. The close odds suggest that this will be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Cristian Javier was on point in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Bregman's true offensive ability to be a .342, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .098 gap between that figure and his actual .244 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Recording 18.3 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal checks in at the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 45 away games (+16.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.40 Units / 44% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.23 vs Detroit Tigers 4.45

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.