Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Pick For 6/18/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Houston Astros at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 18, 2024, both teams are looking for a much-needed win. The White Sox, with a dismal 19-54 record, are enduring a rough season, while the Astros, sitting at 33-39, are having a below-average year by their standards. Given the standings, this American League matchup is pivotal for Houston as they strive to claw back to .500.

Jonathan Cannon is set to start for Chicago. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cannon ranks as the 212th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating a challenging outing ahead for the White Sox. Cannon's projections are concerning: 5.3 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs, 3.4 strikeouts, 5.9 hits, and 1.3 walks. These metrics showcase his struggles this season.

On the other side, the Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound. Valdez, ranked the 32nd best starting pitcher, is expected to provide a solid performance. The projections favor Valdez with 6.3 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs, 5.7 strikeouts, 6.2 hits, and 1.6 walks. Despite the high hit and walk projections, Valdez's overall numbers are promising for Houston.

Offensively, the Astros hold a significant edge. Houston's lineup boasts the 2nd best team batting average and the 4th best home run ranking, compared to Chicago's 29th and 25th rankings in these categories, respectively. Mauricio Dubon has been a highlight for Houston over the past week, recording a .353 batting average and a 1.059 OPS in five games. For the White Sox, Andrew Vaughn has been their standout hitter, posting a .346 batting average and a 1.063 OPS over six games.

The betting odds heavily favor the Astros, with a moneyline of -205, translating to a 65% implied win probability. The White Sox, at +175, have a 35% implied win probability. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring game. Given these factors, Houston's potent offense and the disparity in starting pitching, the Astros are well-positioned to secure a victory in this series opener.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Framber Valdez has used his non-fastballs 6.1% less often this season (47%) than he did last season (53.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Danny Mendick's speed has gotten better this season. His 25.55 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.27 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.54 vs Chicago White Sox 3.84

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