Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Pick For 8/9/2024

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 9, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League. The Red Sox currently sit at 61-52, boasting the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the Astros are slightly behind at 59-55, ranked 11th. This matchup marks the first game of their series, adding an extra layer of intensity.

The Red Sox are coming off a loss, but have been playing well of late for the most part, highlighted by their recent offensive surge. Wilyer Abreu has been instrumental over the last week, leading the charge with a .353 batting average and an impressive 1.332 OPS. However, the Astros also feature standout talent, with Yordan Alvarez contributing significantly to their offense, recording a .364 batting average and 1.163 OPS in his last seven games.

On the mound, Tanner Houck is projected to start for the Red Sox. He holds an 8-8 record with a solid 3.09 ERA this season, ranking him as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his success, projections suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by a higher 3.96 xERA. Houck's average of 6.2 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed per game is promising, but he faces an Astros lineup that excels at making contact.

Ronel Blanco, starting for Houston, has had a decent season with a 9-6 record and a 2.98 ERA. However, similar to Houck, his underlying metrics suggest potential regression. Blanco's ability to limit earned runs will be tested against the Red Sox's high-powered offense.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an exciting one, especially given the closeness of the betting lines. Boston's moneyline of -130 reflects their status as slight favorites, but with both teams showcasing offensive talent and pitching concerns, fans can expect a competitive showdown at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (62.4% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his previous start, Tanner Houck was on point and accumulated 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected offense today (.314 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .332 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+19.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games at home (+12.60 Units / 74% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.44 vs Boston Red Sox 5.13

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.