Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 8/1/2025
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Detroit Tigers in an interleague series opener on Friday night. Philadelphia comes into this series off a disappointing series against one of baseball’s worst teams. Can they get back on track against one of baseball’s best teams? Continue reading to get my Tigers vs Phillies prediction for Friday.
Our Tigers vs Phillies Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Friday, August 1, 2025, 6:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Detroit – Jack Flaherty (6–10, 4.51 ERA)
- Philadelphia – Ranger Suarez (8–4, 2.59 ERA)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and FDSDET
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Jack Flaherty takes to the mound for the Tigers with a 6–10 record and 4.51 ERA. Flaherty is coming off his best start of the season. In that start, he threw six shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays and he will look to build on that here. Suarez has been outstanding this season for Philadelphia. He enters this game with an 8-4 record and a 2.59 ERA. He held the Yankees to just one run in 5.2 innings in his last start.
Key Players
- Riley Greene (DET): Greene leads the Tigers in batting average, home runs, and RBI this year.
- Spencer Torkelson (DET): Torkelson has 23 home runs and power to drive in runs consistently.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI): Schwarber has a team‑leading 37 homers and 86 RBI. He is a true power threat for Philly.
Recent team streaks
- Tigers have won four in a row. Their offense has produced 34 runs over the last four games.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four. They most recently lost two of three games to the Chicago White Sox.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Jack Flaherty | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game the Tigers and Phillies have played against each other this year.
- These teams will play three times in 2025.
- The Tigers are 28-25 on the road this season.
- The Phillies are 33-19 at home.
Tigers vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Tigers 3
Win Probability: Phillies 55%, Tigers 45%
Final Thoughts
I think this is a close game no matter which team wins it. Instead of taking my chances with one side or the other, I am more interested in the total. I think that we see this game stay under 8.5 runs. Suarez is pitching at a high level for the Phillies and that should help keep the Tigers off the scoreboard for the most part. Flaherty is coming off of a good outing as well and shouldn’t do much to hurt our pursuit of a low-scoring game on Friday night.
