The Detroit Tigers (85-71) will head to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (84-72) on Tuesday night. This game could really impact the AL Central race and Wild Card positioning in the American League, with Detroit entering this series a game up on the Guardians in the standings. Detroit has its ace on the mound and hopes that will be enough to end their current losing streak. Here, I break down this game and make my Tigers vs Guardians prediction.
Our Tigers vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Guardians Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
- Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal has been dominant this season with a 13-5 record, 2.23 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.88. He’s allowed only 137 hits in 189.1 innings of work this season. Gavin Williams is solid with an 11-5 record and a 3.06 ERA over 161.2 innings. Skubal always gives Detroit a clear edge on the mound but Williams could make this a competitive matchup.
- Recent team streaks: Cleveland has won nine of their last 10 games and they’re riding a wave of momentum into this huge series. Detroit has dropped six games in a row. They had a comfortable division lead and enter this series up by just one game over the Guardians.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 |
| Riley Greene | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| José Ramírez | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Guardians hold a 6-4 advantage in their season series against the Tigers this year.
- Cleveland has won the last three games they have played against Detroit.
- Detroit has allowed six runs or more in each of their last three games. That streak is expected to end with Skubal on the mound tonight.
- Detroit is 50-45 in night games so far this season. Cleveland is 55-43 in their night games on the year.
Tigers vs Guardians Model Projection
- Score Projection: Tigers 4 – Guardians 5
- Win Probability: Detroit Tigers 48%, Cleveland Guardians 52%
Final Thoughts
With Tarik Skubal on the mound, Detroit has its best shot to end its losing streak in this series opener. His numbers are among the elite in the American League and put Detroit in a position to control large parts of the game. But Cleveland has momentum and Gavin Williams should be able to keep his team in this game long enough for the bullpens to get involved and for it to be anyone’s game. I’ll take the Guardians to steal this series opener and tie things up in the AL Central.
