Tigers vs Guardians ALDS Game 1 Pick & Prediction – 10/5/2024

• Date: October 5, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Holton - Tigers
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Tigers vs Royals Game 1 Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 1 Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on October 5, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League Division Series matchup. The Guardians, who are favored to win with a moneyline of -150, boast a 57% implied win probability, while the Tigers come in as underdogs with a +125 moneyline. The Guardians hold an advantage in this series opener, thanks in part to their solid 17th-ranked offense and a strong 4th-ranked bullpen, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense has struggled, ranking 25th, but their bullpen is no slouch, sitting at 7th.

On the mound, Cleveland will rely on Tanner Bibee, the 41st-best starting pitcher in MLB. Bibee has had a strong season with a 12-8 record, a 3.47 ERA, and an impressive ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow just 1.8 on average today. However, Bibee's projected 4.8 innings of work is concerning, especially against a Tigers team that recently saw Andy Ibanez hitting .400 with a 1.200 OPS over the last week.

The Tigers counter with Tyler Holton, whose transition from the bullpen has been noteworthy. Holton has a stellar 2.19 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.68 suggests some luck has been involved. Despite this, Holton is projected to allow just 0.6 earned runs over 1.6 innings today, a crucial factor for Detroit's chances.

The game total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating a potential pitching duel. With so much on the line in this series opener, this game promises to be an exciting start to the series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tyler Holton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 78 games (+22.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.64 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.75

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.