Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 7/6/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Faedo - Tigers
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers face off in the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with records of 42-46 for the Reds and 40-48 for the Tigers. In the first game of the series, the Reds fell to the Tigers by a close margin, losing 5-4 despite being favored with a Moneyline price of -130.

Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds, sporting a 5-4 Win/Loss record and a 3.70 ERA over his 17 starts this season. Although Greene's xFIP of 4.29 suggests he's been a bit fortunate, he still ranks as the #68 starter in MLB, indicating above-average performance. Greene has been effective in racking up strikeouts, projecting to punch out 6.7 batters over his average of 5.6 innings pitched today.

On the other side, the Tigers will counter with Alex Faedo, whose performance has been less inspiring. Faedo's ERA of 3.35 looks impressive on the surface, but his xFIP of 3.98 suggests some regression is likely. Faedo, who has split time between the bullpen and starting rotation, is projected to pitch only 4.0 innings today while allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Reds have been hampered this year, ranking 23rd in MLB. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, adding a dynamic element to their attack. The Tigers, meanwhile, are near the bottom, ranking 27th in overall offensive performance. Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds with an OPS of 0.822, while Riley Greene leads the Tigers with a 0.868 OPS.

The Reds are the betting favorites today with a Moneyline of -150, reflecting an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this assessment, also projecting a 57% win probability for Cincinnati. This game is expected to be high-scoring, with a Game Total of 9.0 runs. The Reds are projected to score 5.37 runs, while the Tigers are expected to put up 4.86 runs, making for an intriguing matchup.

Will Greene's strikeout prowess and the Reds' aggressive base running be enough to even the series? Or will Faedo and the Tigers continue to defy the odds? This game promises to be an exciting contest for both casual fans and serious sports bettors.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of every team in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Colt Keith's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 76.9-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In terms of his batting average, Noelvi Marte has been lucky since the start of last season. His .282 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .251.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.87 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.38

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