Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Prediction For 5/31/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will face off against the Detroit Tigers on May 31, 2024, at Fenway Park. As the home team, the Red Sox will look to improve their record and secure a victory. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with similar records this season.

The Red Sox, with a 28-29 record, are currently having an average season. They will rely on their projected starting pitcher, Tanner Houck, a right-handed pitcher who has shown great potential. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houck is ranked as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. With an ERA of 1.90, he has been excellent this year, although his xFIP suggests that his performance may regress going forward.

On the other side, the Tigers, with a 28-28 record, are also having an average season. They will send Kenta Maeda, a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. Maeda has started 8 games this year and has a record of 2-1. While his ERA is 5.80, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Red Sox have the 9th best offense in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. However, their power numbers are average, ranking 18th in home runs and 16th in stolen bases. The Tigers, on the other hand, have a lower-ranked offense, ranking 20th overall. They struggle with team batting average, ranking 27th, and have limited power, ranking 27th in both home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Tigers, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

With Tanner Houck's strong pitching and the Red Sox's solid offense, they have a higher projected win probability. However, the Tigers' offense may have an advantage against Houck, who is a high-groundball pitcher facing a team with limited power.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda's 89.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last year's 90.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Detroit Tigers batters as a group rank 24th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to average, Tanner Houck has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Since the start of last season, David Hamilton's 0% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 40% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.9 vs Boston Red Sox 4.71

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