Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/2/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Boston Red Sox will take on the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park on June 2, 2024. The Red Sox, with a season record of 30-29, are having an average season, while the Tigers, with a record of 28-30, are having a below-average season.

The Red Sox, as the home team, will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start Brayan Bello, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bello is ranked as the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his skill and ability.

On the other hand, the Tigers will send Casey Mize, also a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. Mize has been struggling this season, with an average ERA of 4.71. Our Power Rankings consider him a below-average pitcher. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

Offensively, the Red Sox have been solid this season, ranking as the #11 best team in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #3 in the league. However, their power, as indicated by their team home run ranking of #18, is average. The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking as the #22 best team in MLB. Their team batting average and home run rankings are both in the lower range of the league.

In terms of pitching, the Red Sox bullpen ranks as the #27 best in MLB, while the Tigers bullpen ranks as the #16 best. This suggests that the Tigers may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Tigers are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%.

With the stage set for an exciting matchup, both teams will be looking to secure a victory. Will the Red Sox capitalize on their home-field advantage, or will the Tigers pull off an upset? Only time will tell as these two teams battle it out at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 14.9 outs per start this year on average, Casey Mize falls in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 13.5° figure is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#7 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 16.5% more often this year (59.6%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Connor Wong has strong power (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Casey Mize doesn't generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Wong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+20.50 Units / 342% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.33 vs Boston Red Sox 5.05

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