Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 3/29/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On March 29, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Colorado Rockies in the second game of their interleague series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Rays come into this matchup following a tight 3-2 victory over the Rockies just a day prior, and they are riding high with a 1-0 record this season. Conversely, the Rockies are struggling, having dropped their opener against Tampa Bay and now sitting at 0-1.

The Rays are set to start Zack Littell, who, despite being ranked 131st among MLB starting pitchers, had a decent outing in his last start on September 25, 2024, where he pitched five innings, allowing three earned runs while striking out seven. Littell's projections indicate he should pitch around 5.5 innings today, with a good forecast of allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average. However, his 4.9 hits allowed and 0.9 walks projected are concerning and suggest potential vulnerability.

On the other side, the Rockies will turn to Antonio Senzatela, who struggled significantly in his last outing, yielding six earned runs in just four innings pitched. Senzatela's projections are equally troubling, with an expected 2.8 earned runs allowed and a poor strikeout rate of 3.7 on average today.

While the Rays’ offense ranks 29th in MLB, which is notably poor, they have exhibited strength on the bases, ranking 4th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Rockies’ offense is average at best, sitting at 18th in MLB. The projections imply that the Rays should outscore the Rockies, who have a low implied team total of just 3.36 runs today, compared to Tampa Bay's high of 4.64. With the betting line favoring the Rays significantly, this matchup is set up for Tampa Bay to continue building momentum as they seek to capitalize on the Rockies' weak start.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 18.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 10th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Zack Littell should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Antonio Senzatela

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 134 games (+21.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Kameron Misner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Get daily MLB picks here.