Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/27/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on June 27, 2025, at American Family Field, they do so with momentum from their recent victory, winning 4-2 against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 25. Currently, the Brewers sit at 45-36, enjoying a strong season, while the Rockies struggle at 18-63, marking one of the worst records in MLB.

The matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Jose Quintana for the Brewers and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Quintana, with a respectable ERA of 2.98, is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. His recent performance was stellar, having pitched 6 innings with no earned runs in his last start on June 21. Despite being ranked as the 220th best starting pitcher in MLB, Quintana's low strikeout rate of 15.5 K% could be an advantage against a Rockies offense that leads the league in strikeouts.

On the other hand, Freeland is having a tough year with a 5.13 ERA and a 1-8 record. He projects poorly for this game, with an expected 4.6 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed. Although his xFIP of 3.75 suggests he might have been unlucky, he still faces a Brewers offense that, despite ranking 19th overall, has the potential to capitalize on his struggles, especially considering the Rockies rank 26th in offensive production.

The Brewers are significant favorites with a moneyline of -200, indicating their high expectations to secure a win against a Rockies team that has not shown much resilience this season. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, there’s potential for a relatively high-scoring affair, but all eyes will be on how Quintana handles the Rockies' aggressive lineup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Brenton Doyle has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .251 mark is quite a bit lower than his .310 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Hunter Goodman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This season, William Contreras's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 10% last year to just 4.6% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+10.42 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kyle Freeland has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.35, Milwaukee Brewers 4.72

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers

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