Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers gear up to host the Colorado Rockies on September 21, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, this National League West matchup has two teams on vastly different trajectories. The Dodgers, boasting a stellar 92-62 record, are enjoying a successful season, while the Rockies, with a disappointing 59-95 record, have struggled throughout. This game marks the second in their series, with the Dodgers having secured a 6-4 victory in the opener.

Walker Buehler takes the mound for Los Angeles, attempting to improve on a tough season. Despite a challenging 1-5 record and a 5.54 ERA, Buehler's 4.66 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. His matchup against the Rockies' lineup, which ranks 2nd in strikeouts in MLB, could play to his advantage. The Dodgers' offense, ranked as the 2nd best overall, should provide ample support, especially with Shohei Ohtani in impressive form over the past week, hitting .433 with five home runs and 18 RBIs.

On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Cal Quantrill. With an 8-10 record and an average 4.68 ERA, Quantrill faces a daunting task against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in walks. His high walk rate could be problematic against such a disciplined offense. The Rockies' bats, led by Sam Hilliard's recent hot streak, will look to capitalize on any opportunities against a Dodgers bullpen ranked 11th in the Power Rankings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Los Angeles a 69% win probability, slightly lower than betting markets' 71% implied odds. The Dodgers are projected to score 5.72 runs, while the Rockies are forecasted at 3.92, both aligning with the game's total set at 9.0 runs. With a potent offense and a favorable pitching matchup, the Dodgers appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways against the Rockies.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill's change-up percentage has jumped by 12% from last season to this one (22.4% to 34.4%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Walker Buehler's 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 79th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miguel Rojas has been lucky this year, posting a .334 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .050 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #3 club in the league this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 90 games (+17.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 games (+6.54 Units / 25% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.06 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.8

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