Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Prediction – 8/28/2025
The Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies will wrap up their three-game interleague series on Thursday afternoon in Houston. Colorado took the first game of the series in surprising fashion before Houston responded with a win on Wednesday night. Houston is favored at home in the rubber match as they look to create some breathing room for themselves in the AL West. Here, I break down this MLB matchup and bring you my Rockies vs Astros prediction.
Our Rockies vs Astros Pick
- Pick: Houston Astros -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 2:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Rockies – Kyle Freeland (3-13, 5.31 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
- Astros – Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Kyle Freeland carries a 5.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 125.1 innings for Colorado. His ERA remains high even when away from Coors Field and he has allowed 18 home runs on the season. Right-handed hitters have hit 17 of the 18 home runs against Freeland. That could make betting on righties to go deep for the Astros worth looking into today.
Jason Alexander has been solid in his seven starts for the Astros. He has a winning record and a 4.59 ERA and has fared better at home than he has on the road. Alexander should have the advantage in this pitching matchup as long as he avoids giving up a big inning somewhere along the line.
Key Players
- Houston: Jose Altuve leads Houston with 22 home runs and he has 64 RBI. He is exactly the kind of right-handed bat who could cause problems for Freeland today.
- Colorado: Hunter Goodman is the Rockies’ leader in home runs, RBI, and batting average. If the Rockies are going to have any chance in this game it will start with Goodman producing.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Astros have won four of their last six games and hold a strong home record of 39-28.
- The Rockies have lost five of their last six games and remain one of MLB’s weaker road teams at 17-50.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | Over 0.5 |
| Jason Alexander | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
| Hunter Goodman | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston leads the season series over the Rockies 3-2 entering Thursday’s play.
- This is the last regular-season matchup between these interleague opponents. Houston will either clinch the season series or it will end tied at three games apiece.
Rockies vs Astros Model Projection
Score Projection: Astros 6 – Rockies 2
Win Probability: Astros 64%, Rockies 36%
Final Thoughts
The Astros have a clear advantage going into this series finale in Houston. Jason Alexander has been the more effective of the two starting pitchers and Freeland’s vulnerability against right-handed bats could hurt him in a big way in this contest. My recommendation is to lay the runline with the Astros in what should be a lopsided contest.
