Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/17/2025

On May 17, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field for the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks are currently 24-21, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rockies are struggling at a dismal 7-37. In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks emerged victorious, continuing their strong performance against a Rockies team that has been unable to find its footing.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona, bringing a solid reputation as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Gallen's statistics indicate he's been somewhat unlucky this season, with a 4.59 ERA and a lower xFIP of 4.09, suggesting he could be poised for a breakout performance. He averages 6.0 innings pitched with a projection of allowing just 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters, positioning him well against a Rockies offense that ranks 29th in the league.

On the other hand, German Marquez is set to start for Colorado, but his struggles have been evident this season. With an 8.27 ERA and a 1-6 record, he is one of the least effective pitchers in MLB. Marquez’s projections show he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs and striking out only 3.3 batters, which could be a significant disadvantage against the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, ranked 3rd in MLB.

With the Diamondbacks' offense thriving and the Rockies' lineup faltering, Arizona is heavily favored in this matchup. The betting lines reflect this, with an implied team total of 5.75 runs for the Diamondbacks compared to just 3.25 for the Rockies. Given the current trends and the projected pitching matchup, Arizona appears well-positioned to secure another win.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez's high utilization rate of his fastball (58% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Over the last 14 days, Ryan McMahon has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.1% to 25%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Colorado's 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this season (92.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season's 92.6-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• German Marquez has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 4 away games (+4.25 Units / 88% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.38

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

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