Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 4/15/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 105, Phillies -1.5 -125
• Money Line: Rockies 220, Phillies -260
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 30%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 70%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 30.67%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 69.33%

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Colorado Rockies at Citizens Bank Park on April 15, 2024. The Phillies, with an 8-8 record this season, are having an average season, while the struggling Rockies hold a 4-12 record, indicating a terrible start to their campaign.

The Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season so far. Nola has started three games, holding a 2-1 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.50, which is considered average. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Nola has been lucky this year, with peripheral indicators suggesting a potential decline in performance going forward.

On the other hand, the Rockies are projected to start Cal Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Quantrill holds a win/loss record of 0-2 with an alarming ERA of 7.20. However, his 4.75 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Phillies offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, indicating a below-average performance. However, their team batting average ranks 8th in the league, showcasing their ability to hit for average. In contrast, the Rockies offense ranks 9th best in MLB, demonstrating their overall talent despite their poor record.

According to the projections, Nola is expected to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out 6.7 batters, which is considered good. However, he is expected to allow 5.3 hits and 1.1 walks, which are areas of concern.

Quantrill, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 3.7 batters, which is below average. Additionally, he is projected to allow 6.0 hits and 1.8 walks, indicating potential struggles.

In terms of team rankings, the Phillies have an average bullpen, ranked 19th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Rockies have a strong bullpen, ranked 10th in the league.

The Phillies enter this game as massive betting favorites with a moneyline of -260, implying a 70% chance of winning. The Rockies, on the other hand, are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +220 and a 30% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Elias Diaz's speed has declined this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.6 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Ryan McMahon has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.423) may lead us to conclude that Bryce Harper has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .373 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Rockies vs Phillies Prediction: Rockies 3.55 - Phillies 5.18

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