Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 4/16/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -110, Phillies -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Rockies 200, Phillies -235
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 100

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 32%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 27.04%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 72.96%

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies on April 16, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will look to continue their above-average season with a record of 9-8, while the struggling Rockies aim to turn their terrible 4-13 season around.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been performing exceptionally well this year with a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.65 ERA. However, his 3.25 FIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could see some regression going forward. On the other side, the Rockies will likely start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, whose 4.91 ERA indicates a below-average performance this season. Gomber's 6.29 xERA and 5.63 FIP further suggest that his luck may run out soon.

In their last game, the Phillies faced the Rockies and came out on top with a 2-1 victory. The Phillies were heavily favored with a closing Moneyline price of -260, indicating a 70% win probability. The Rockies, as massive underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +220, had a 30% win probability.

The Phillies offense ranks as the 23rd best in Major League Baseball (MLB) this season, while the Rockies offense sits at 13th. However, the Phillies have the edge in team batting average, ranking 8th in the league, while the Rockies lag behind at 18th. The Phillies are also more successful in stolen bases, ranking 10th compared to the Rockies' last place rank.

Taking a closer look at the pitching matchup, Ranger Suarez, known for his high strikeout rate, will face a Rockies offense that ranks third in strikeouts. This could give Suarez an advantage. However, his tendency to throw strikes might not work in his favor against a Rockies offense that ranks fifth in the league for the fewest walks.

With a projected win probability of 73%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, considers the Phillies as massive favorites in this matchup. The betting market also heavily favors the Phillies, with a current moneyline of -235 and an implied win probability of 68%. The Rockies, as big underdogs, have a current moneyline of +200 and an implied win probability of 32%.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Austin Gomber in the 21st percentile among all SPs in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the least runs (3.08 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph decrease from last year's 92.2-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 64 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 away games (+15.78 Units / 46% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has only hit the Total Bases Over in 3 of his last 11 games (-4.45 Units / -40% ROI)

Rockies vs Phillies Prediction: Rockies 3.08 - Phillies 4.93

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