Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics Pick For 5/21/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Aaron Brooks - Athletics

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup scheduled for May 21, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will be hosting the Colorado Rockies at the Oakland Coliseum. This Interleague game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Athletics, who are having a terrible season with a record of 19-30, will be looking to turn things around as the home team. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Brooks, who has had a rough start to the season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Brooks is ranked as the #307 best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. However, his ERA of 3.86 indicates some promise, despite his Win/Loss record of 0-1. Brooks is expected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs per game. While his strikeout projection is below-average at 4.1 batters, he may have an advantage against the Rockies, who rank #3 in the league for strikeouts.

On the other hand, the Rockies are also having a tough season, with a record of 15-31. They will start right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has shown promise with an ERA of 3.66. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Quantrill is projected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs per game. With a below-average strikeout projection of 4.6 batters, he may struggle against the Athletics, who possess a higher strikeout rate.

In terms of offensive performance, the Athletics have struggled this season, ranking as the #25 best team in MLB. Their team batting average ranks at the bottom of the league at #30. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #5 in MLB. The Rockies' offense, meanwhile, ranks #19 overall, with an average team batting average at #18. However, they lag behind in home runs, ranking #24 in the league.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Athletics rank #22, while the Rockies sit at #17 in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This indicates that both teams have average bullpen strength.

Based on the current odds, the Athletics have an average implied team total of 3.97 runs, while the Rockies have a lower implied team total of 3.53 runs. THE BAT X projects the Athletics to score 4.12 runs on average, slightly more than the Rockies' projection of 4.24 runs.

With a slight edge in projected win probability, THE BAT X gives the Athletics a 51% chance of winning, while the Rockies have a 49% chance. The current moneyline odds reflect a close game, with the Athletics at -135 and the Rockies at +115.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has averaged 91.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brenton Doyle's batting average ability is projected to be in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Aaron Brooks will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Seth Brown is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 64% ROI)
• Abraham Toro has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.32 vs Oakland Athletics 4.1

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.