Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/4/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on May 4, 2025, fans can anticipate an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in different directions. The Blue Jays sit at 16-17, struggling with a below-average season, while the Guardians occupy a more favorable 19-14 record, showcasing a strong performance thus far. In their last game, the Blue Jays lost a close one to the Guardians, adding pressure on them to turn the tide in this series.

Today’s pitching duel features Bowden Francis for Toronto, who has had a challenging year with a 2-4 record and a 5.28 ERA. Although ranked as the 201st best starting pitcher in MLB, peripheral metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his 4.49 xFIP indicates he has faced some bad luck. Francis is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out a modest 4.5 batters. However, he faces a Cleveland lineup that has been steady, marked by their 13th ranking in home runs, providing an added challenge.

On the other side, Tanner Bibee looks to build on a solid start to his season. With a 2-2 record and a respectable 4.36 ERA, he ranks 79th among MLB starters. Bibee's low strikeout rate may work against him when facing the Blue Jays, who strike out the least in MLB. He’s projected to pitch 5.7 innings, and although he may allow 3.0 earned runs, he needs to minimize contact against a struggling Blue Jays offense, currently ranked 24th overall.

As both teams navigate this pivotal matchup, the Blue Jays will look to exploit their home-field advantage, despite their 11th-ranked bullpen, compared to the Guardians’ impressive 4th-ranked unit. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Blue Jays’ implied team total of 4.05 runs suggests they may find some offensive rhythm, which they desperately need.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's 2198-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 163-rpm fall off from last season's 2361-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Gabriel Arias is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Bo Naylor, the Guardians's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Addison Barger's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.8-mph now compared to just 88.1-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.74, Toronto Blue Jays 4.7

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

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