Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 9/7/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up a four-game American League series on Sunday afternoon. The series has tilted toward Cleveland thanks to a nice response after a loss in the opening game. With a day game scheduled at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa and a very good pitching matchup on tap, you won’t want to miss my Guardians vs Rays prediction below.
Our Guardians vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Rays moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 12:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Parker Messick vs Drew Rasmussen
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Tampa Bay form: A seven‑game win streak pushed the Rays back into the postseason conversation. But Tampa has lost two straight games since then and will try to bounce back here.
- Cleveland’s offense: Production has leaned heavily on José Ramírez and Kyle Manzardo this week. But the pitching of Cleveland has helped them get on track in this series.
- Venue factor: Steinbrenner Field’s smaller capacity and tight sightlines often compress travel times for fielders and puts a premium on good jumps in the outfield.
Pitching matchup
- Parker Messick: Messick is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings. The rookie has mixed a riding four‑seam with a fading changeup that has neutralized righties in a small sample size.
- Drew Rasmussen: The Rays’ starter is 10-5 with a 2.74 ERA in 134.2 innings of work. He has an elite fastball‑slider pairing and great command. He’s been stingy at home and typically stretches into the six or seventh inning when his pitch count cooperates.
Recent team streaks
- The Rays have dropped two games in a row to the Guardians coming into this series finale.
- Cleveland has held Tampa to two runs or fewer in back-to-back games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | 1+ Home Run |
| Drew Rasmussen | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Kyle Manzardo | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| José Ramírez | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Parker Messick | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cleveland has a 4-2 lead in their season series with the Rays.
- This is the final game of the season series between these American League opponents.
Guardians vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Guardians 3 – Rays 5
Win Probability: Guardians 42%, Rays 58%
Final Thoughts
Both starting pitchers have been very good so far this year. But I’m going to lean on the larger sample size of Drew Rasmussen to make the difference in this contest. Rasmussen should be able to get the job done today against a Guardians team that hasn’t been putting up a ton of offense in this series. Tampa’s bats will do just enough to get them the win in what should be a competitive matchup in Tampa today.
