Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 9/6/2025
The Cleveland Guardians will head to Tampa on Saturday for Game 3 of their four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay has surged back into the Wild Card picture with a sustained run of victories but Cleveland got the better of them last night. With Tanner Bibee slated for Cleveland and Shane Baz for Tampa Bay, the game centers on which right-hander limits the opposing lineup the best. Here, I look at this game from all angles and make my Guardians vs Rays prediction.
Our Guardians vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Game: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs Shane Baz
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Breakdown
Tanner Bibee’s pitching has leaned on a mid-90s four-seam fastball and a slider. His recent form shows variance in his level of performance. He’s carried a 4.77 ERA with a dip in whiff rate over the last couple of starts. Bibee’s recent results against the Rays haven’t been ideal, including a rough outing in late August. His season line sits at 9-11 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 154.2 innings.
Shane Baz brings premium stuff and strikeout upside but he is also 9-11 on the season. The risk is command lapses that inflate pitch counts and lead to the long ball when behind in the count. If Baz lands the slider early and uses the elevated fastball selectively against lefty bats such as Steven Kwan, he carries the higher ceiling in this head-to-head.
Key Players
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero: Caminero has 41 HR, 103 RBI, and a .263 average. He has an elite barrel rate and pull-side power that plays to left field.
- Guardians 3B José Ramírez: Ramirez leads the team in all three major batting categories and will try to make another impact for his team tonight.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Rays had a seven-game winning streak snapped in their last game.
- Cleveland has won two of its last three games and will try to get a big win tonight.
Best Player Props
| Market | Player |
|---|---|
| 1+ Home Run | Junior Caminero |
| 1+ Home Run | José Ramírez |
| Over 5.5 Strikeouts | Shane Baz |
| Under 5.5 Strikeouts | Tanner Bibee |
| Over 1.5 Total Bases | Yandy Díaz |
| Over 1.5 Total Bases | José Ramírez |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Guardians hold a 3-2 lead in their season series against the Rays.
- Four of the five games in this season series have been decided by two runs or more.
Guardians vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Guardians 3 – Rays 5
Win Probability: Guardians 44%, Rays 56%
Final Thoughts
The market has settled with Tampa Bay as a modest favorite and a total sitting at 8.5. The Rays’ current form and their pop in the middle of the order should push this game in the Rays’ favor. Bibee can absolutely steady things if the slider snaps early, but his recent volatility and previous struggles against the Rays will tilt the balance to Tampa Bay.
