Cleveland Guardians VS Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -195, Twins -1.5 165
• Money Line: Guardians 110, Twins -130
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 46%
• Minnesota Twins - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 46.8%
• Minnesota Twins - 53.2%

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

The Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Guardians on April 7, 2024, at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will look to turn the tide on their struggling season, with a current record of 3-4. On the other hand, the Guardians come into the matchup with a strong record of 7-2, making it a clash between a team having a tough season and a team having a great one.

Both teams are set to start right-handed pitchers, with Bailey Ober taking the mound for the Twins and Triston McKenzie for the Guardians. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ober ranks as the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB, while McKenzie is considered a below-average pitcher.

Ober has started one game this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 54.00, which is less than desirable. However, his 11.98 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. McKenzie, on the other hand, has also started one game, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 10.80. His 6.63 xFIP indicates some bad luck as well, suggesting room for improvement.

In terms of offense, the Twins rank as the #24 best in MLB, while the Guardians come in at #7. The Twins have shown power, ranking #7 in team home runs, but struggle in other areas, such as stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Guardians have a well-rounded offense, excelling in team batting average and stolen bases.

Looking at the projections for this game, Ober is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings on average, while McKenzie is projected for approximately 5.8 innings. Ober is projected to allow 1.9 earned runs per game, while McKenzie is projected to allow 2.4 earned runs. Both pitchers project to have their strengths and weaknesses, making it an intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Triston McKenzie encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cleveland Guardians (17 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Extreme groundball hitters like Byron Buxton tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Triston McKenzie.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games (+12.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 153 games (+20.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 84% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Guardians 3.85 vs Minnesota Twins 3.88

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