Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Reid Detmers - Angels

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 26, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Cleveland Guardians at Angel Stadium. The Angels, currently having a terrible season with a record of 20-32, will be looking to turn things around against the Guardians, who are having a great season with a record of 35-17.

The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Reid Detmers, who has had an average performance this year according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Detmers has started 10 games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of 5.80. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Lively, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lively has started 7 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.84. However, his 4.06 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

In terms of offense, the Angels rank as the 11th best team in MLB this season, with a solid team batting average. They are also third in home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. However, their stolen bases rank is one of the worst in the league. On the other hand, the Guardians have an average offense, ranking 14th in both team batting average and overall offensive performance. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Angels have the worst bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Guardians have the third-best bullpen. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.20 runs, while the Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for the total number of runs scored in the game.

With the Angels struggling this season and the Guardians performing exceptionally well, the odds slightly favor the Guardians. However, betting markets predict a close game with a relatively even win probability for both teams.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Josh Naylor's speed has dropped off this season. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.89 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Reid Detmers has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.7) implies that Jo Adell has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 37.9 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Kyren Paris, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+15.82 Units / 24% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.68 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.62

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