Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 7/28/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians
  • Kolby Allard - Phillies

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a clash of two teams having stellar seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Cleveland Guardians at Citizens Bank Park on July 28, 2024, in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are performing admirably this season, with the Phillies sporting a 65-39 record and the Guardians close behind at 62-42. This game is the third in the series between these two clubs and holds significant implications for both sides as they strive for playoff positioning.

Philadelphia's offense has been elite, ranking 3rd in team batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. This strong offensive showing is complemented by the recent hot streak of Nick Castellanos, who has been on fire over the last week, batting .348 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. On the mound, however, the Phillies face challenges. Kolby Allard, their projected starter, has struggled mightily. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Allard ranks as the 311th best starter out of 350, and his projections do not inspire confidence, with an expected 4.8 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs allowed, and just 3.2 strikeouts.

Cleveland's offense, while not as potent as Philadelphia's, remains competent, ranking 15th in both batting average and home runs, and 8th in stolen bases. Their best hitter over the last seven games, Jose Ramirez, has maintained a .778 OPS with a home run and a stolen base, providing a reliable spark. Joey Cantillo, Cleveland's projected starter, is considered an average pitcher by advanced metrics. Despite his average status, his projections are also underwhelming, with 4.6 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.6 strikeouts.

The Phillies enter the game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. Their offense's prowess is a significant factor, with an implied team total of 5.07 runs. On the other hand, the Guardians, as underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, will rely on their balanced attack to exploit Allard's vulnerabilities.

With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs, expect an offensive showdown. Philadelphia's explosive lineup and Cleveland's consistency at the plate point towards a high-scoring affair, potentially favoring the Phillies if they can capitalize on their offensive advantages.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Joey Cantillo has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Bo Naylor, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kolby Allard in the 18th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Over the past 14 days, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 44 games at home (+18.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 90 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+9.60 Units / 137% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.31 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.