Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds visit PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 22, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive National League Central. The Pirates currently sit at 59-67, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 62-65. Despite their struggles, the Pirates have a slight edge in the projected matchup, largely due to the elite status of their starting pitcher, Paul Skenes.

In their last game, the Pirates were unable to find their rhythm, continuing a trend that has left them with one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking 27th overall. Skenes, who boasts a remarkable 7-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.30, is projected to allow just 1.9 earned runs and strike out 7.1 batters on average today. His high strikeout rate (31.8 K%) could prove advantageous against a Reds lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.

Nick Lodolo, the Reds' projected starter, has had an average season with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 4.55. Although he is considered above average, his 3.95 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky this year, which could lead to improvement in his performance. However, the Reds offense, while ranking 18th overall, has been inconsistent, particularly in batting average at 27th.

With the Pirates favored at -150 and an implied team total of 4.08 runs, they will need to capitalize on their pitching advantage and find ways to support Skenes against a Reds bullpen that ranks 25th in MLB. The low game total of 7.5 runs indicates expectations for a tightly contested match. If Skenes can deliver as projected, the Pirates may well secure a crucial victory in this pivotal series opener.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo's high utilization rate of his fastball (56.3% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Ty France has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Over his last 3 games started, Paul Skenes has experienced a notable decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2262 rpm over the whole season to 2207 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Connor Joe's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.9-mph figure last season has fallen to 85-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (81st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 away games (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.74 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.