Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 6/18/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As MLB action heats up, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds in the second game of their series at PNC Park on June 18, 2024. Both teams are having lukewarm seasons, with the Pirates sitting at 35-37 and the Reds at 34-38. This National League Central matchup is pivotal for both teams looking to make a push in the standings. Yesterday, the Pirates edged out the Reds, adding a bit more intrigue to today’s matchup.

On the mound for the Pirates is Bailey Falter, a lefty with a 3-4 record and a respectable 3.86 ERA over 13 starts this season. While Falter's ERA is solid, his 4.52 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and might be due for regression. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Falter is expected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 3.8 batters. These numbers aren't exceptional, and his ranking as the 207th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers underlines his struggles.

Nick Lodolo will counter for the Reds, boasting an impressive 7-2 record with a stellar 2.93 ERA over 10 starts. Although his 3.61 xFIP indicates some luck, Lodolo's ranking as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB shows his effectiveness. THE BAT X projects Lodolo to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.2 batters, which should give the Reds a slight edge on the mound.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking 27th in overall offensive talent, 21st in batting average, and 23rd in home runs. Conversely, the Reds have been a bit better, ranking 17th in overall offensive talent, but their 26th-ranked batting average has been a glaring weakness. However, their prowess on the basepaths is notable—they are 1st in stolen bases.

The Pirates' bullpen, ranked 11th, could be an advantage late in the game, given the Reds' bullpen sits at 23rd. With both teams' offenses struggling and considering the pitching matchups, the Reds’ slight edge in starting pitching with Lodolo might be enough to secure a win. Betting markets have the Reds favored with a -135 moneyline, reflecting a 55% implied win probability, while the Pirates are set at +115.

Both teams will hope their top hitters can make a difference. Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates' best performer over the last week, hitting .345 with a 1.042 OPS. Jeimer Candelario has been on fire for the Reds, batting .417 with a 1.317 OPS, 3 home runs, and 9 RBIs over the last seven days.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Generating 17.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Nick Lodolo places in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

T.J. Friedl has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (66.9 compared to 52.8% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

When it comes to his home runs, Bryan Reynolds has had some very poor luck this year. His 17.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 41.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Connor Joe has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 72% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.39 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.28

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