Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 7/5/2025
The Cincinnati Reds head into Citizens Bank Park for Game 2 of their series against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, July 5. Cincinnati jumped on top of this series with a 9‑6 win on Friday, but now faces a daunting task: tackling Phillies’ left‑hander Ranger Suárez. Here, I break down this National League contest and give you my best Reds vs Phillies prediction for Saturday.
Our Reds vs Phillies Pick
Pick: Under 8.5 runs
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo (LHP, Reds) vs Ranger Suárez (LHP, Phillies)
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and FDSOH
Key Storylines
Pitching form
Ranger Suárez enters with a 7‑2 record and 2.00 ERA. His Statcast marks of a 26.9% hard‑hit rate and barrel rate of just 4.1% rank among MLB’s best.
Nick Lodolo is 5‑5 with a 3.52 ERA this year. In his last two starts, he has given up just one earned in each against the Yankees and Padres.
Bullpen usage
The bullpens in this game are pretty evenly matched. Philly holds a slight advantage in terms of bullpen ERA, but we might not see a ton of either bullpen with the way that both starters in this matchup have been pitching.
Recent team streaks
Cincinnati has won three of its last five, including that opening 9‑6 road win here on July 4th.
Philadelphia has also won three out of five, including two out of three in a recent series with the Padres.
Best Player Props
Player
Prop
Line
Kyle Schwarber
Over .5 Home Runs
+260
Ranger Suárez
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
–145
Betting Trends & H2H
Phillies as moneyline favorites this season have gone 42-25.
Reds are 29-23 as underdogs this season and have the second-best win percentage in MLB in that role.
Cincinnati leads the season series between these teams 1-0 after their win on Friday.
Reds vs Phillies Model Projection
Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Reds 3
Win Probability: Phillies 60%, Reds 40%
Final Thoughts
With Ranger Suárez pitching lights‑out and stellar bullpen support, Philadelphia holds the upper hand in this game. But Lodolo can keep it close, and I think the total looks primed to stay below 8.5. This one looks like a tight pitchers’ duel settled by a run or two and one where both starters should have plenty of success.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
Home›MLB Picks›Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 7/5/2025
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