Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 7/4/2025

Friday’s Independence Day showdown in Philadelphia features a compelling clash between two left-handed pitchers at Citizens Bank Park, with the Cincinnati Reds challenging the home-favorite Philadelphia Phillies. The forecast looks ideal for baseball, and with both teams riding solid form, this promises to be a game worth watching. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Phillies prediction for this holiday matchup.

Our Reds vs Phillies Pick

Pick: Under 8.5 runs

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reds: Andrew Abbott (7–1, 1.79 ERA, 8.5 K/9 over 80.1 innings)
  • Phillies: Jesús Luzardo (7–4, 4.06 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 111 strikeouts in 95.1 innings)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and FDSOH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Andrew Abbott is on fire this season. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in 12 of 14 starts with a 1.79 ERA. He is limiting hitters to a .203 average this year.
• Jesús Luzardo relies on swing-and-miss stuff, averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His 4.06 ERA suggests occasional inconsistency, but a FIP of 2.75 signals that he is better than his ERA would lead you to believe.

Bullpen usage

Both teams have below average bullpens, with bullpen ERAs north of 4.00. But I’m not sure that either bullpen puts their team at a significant disadvantage with both of them struggling equally going into this game.

Recent team streaks

• Reds are 6–4 in their last 10 games, including a win in Boston sparked by a late grand slam from Christian Encarnacion‑Strand.
• Phillies are 5–5 over the same stretch, and have won three of their last four games going into this series opener.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Phillies are 28–15 at home and 42-24 as moneyline favorites this season.
• Reds are 28–23 as underdogs and hold the league’s third-best win percentage as dogs this year.
• This is the first game of a six-game season series between these teams in 2025.

Reds vs Phillies Model Projection

Score Projection: Cincinnati 3 – Philadelphia 4

Win Probability: Cincinnati 41%, Philadelphia 59%

Final Thoughts

Both starting pitchers have been excellent this year, especially Abbott. The under at 8.5 runs is a smart play given the likelihood of a low-scoring start to the game. Abbott’s consistency and Luzardo’s swing-and-miss stuff suggest that each starter will keep the opposing lineup in check. While the Phillies hold a slight edge at home, I find the under to carry more value than betting Philly in a game where a bullpen meltdown could come from either side late.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.