Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 7/6/2025

The Cincinnati Reds head to Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, July 6. This series rubber match is one the Phillies are expected to win thanks to a huge starting pitching edge. But games are not decided on paper and they will have to earn it on the field. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Phillies prediction for Sunday.

Our Reds vs Phillies Pick

  • Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
  • Bonus Bets For the Game: Use our DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY for this game!

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim
Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim
Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim
Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies
  • Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Chase Burns (0–1, 13.50 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (8–3, 2.27 ERA)
  • Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
  • Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and FDSOH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

  • Zack Wheeler has been elite, striking out 136 over 107 innings with a 2.27 ERA. He delivered eight shutout innings in his last start against the San Diego Padres.
  • Burns has struggled badly. In his two starts he’s allowed eight earned runs in just 5.1 innings. He owns a 13.50 ERA, and failed to record a full inning last time out against the Boston Red Sox.

Bullpen usage

The Reds will likely be forced into early bullpen action given Burns’ short leash. That is likely to put them at a disadvantage here, especially with Wheeler projected to pitch pretty deep into this game.

Recent team streaks

  • Philly is 3-2 in their last five games.
  • Cincinnati is 2-3 in their last five, having had a two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropLine
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)Home runsOver 0.5 (+200)
Zack Wheeler (PHI)StrikeoutsOver 8.5 K (+110)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN)Total basesOver 1.5 (+140)
  • The head-to-head between these teams is tied 1-1. They will play three more games against each other in August after this series wraps up.
  • Cincinnati is 22-24 on the road this year, Philly is 29-16 at home.
  • Cincinnati is 35-18 as a runline underdog this season.

Phillies vs Reds Model Projection

Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Reds 3

Win Probability: Phillies 68%, Reds 32%

Final Thoughts

The mismatch here is clear. Zack Wheeler has been firing on all cylinders and will likely out-duel a struggling Chase Burns. The Phillies have the pitching edge, recent momentum, and betting trends painting a strong picture. Expect Philadelphia to cover the runline and keep the total under. Our pick is to lay the run and a half with the Phillies with confidence that they’ll seal the series in style.


Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.

̈́

Related Articles

Leave a Comment

Home MLB Picks Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 7/6/2025