Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 7/6/2025

The Cincinnati Reds head to Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, July 6. This series rubber match is one the Phillies are expected to win thanks to a huge starting pitching edge. But games are not decided on paper and they will have to earn it on the field. Continue reading to get my Reds vs Phillies prediction for Sunday.

Our Reds vs Phillies Pick

• Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Chase Burns (0–1, 13.50 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (8–3, 2.27 ERA)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and FDSOH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Zack Wheeler has been elite, striking out 136 over 107 innings with a 2.27 ERA. He delivered eight shutout innings in his last start against the San Diego Padres.
• Burns has struggled badly. In his two starts he’s allowed eight earned runs in just 5.1 innings. He owns a 13.50 ERA, and failed to record a full inning last time out against the Boston Red Sox.

Bullpen usage

The Reds will likely be forced into early bullpen action given Burns’ short leash. That is likely to put them at a disadvantage here, especially with Wheeler projected to pitch pretty deep into this game.

Recent team streaks

• Philly is 3-2 in their last five games.
• Cincinnati is 2-3 in their last five, having had a two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The head-to-head between these teams is tied 1-1. They will play three more games against each other in August after this series wraps up.
• Cincinnati is 22-24 on the road this year, Philly is 29-16 at home.
• Cincinnati is 35-18 as a runline underdog this season.

Phillies vs Reds Model Projection

Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Reds 3

Win Probability: Phillies 68%, Reds 32%

Final Thoughts

The mismatch here is clear. Zack Wheeler has been firing on all cylinders and will likely out-duel a struggling Chase Burns. The Phillies have the pitching edge, recent momentum, and betting trends painting a strong picture. Expect Philadelphia to cover the runline and keep the total under. Our pick is to lay the run and a half with the Phillies with confidence that they’ll seal the series in style.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.