Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/9/2025

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on May 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, each holding records hovering around .500. The Astros sit at 18-18, while the Reds are slightly behind at 19-20. With both squads looking to gain traction, this upcoming Interleague matchup carries added significance, marking the first game of the series.

Houston’s Hunter Brown, projected to start, is a key player to watch. Currently ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, Brown boasts an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar ERA of 1.67. He has demonstrated exceptional strikeout ability, with a 31.0 K% this year, which could pose a challenge for the Reds, who rank 4th in MLB for strikeouts. While Brown projects to allow 2.0 earned runs and pitch an average of 5.9 innings, his peripherals suggest he may face some regression moving forward.

On the other side, Nick Martinez will take the mound for Cincinnati. Ranked 81st among starting pitchers, Martinez's 1-3 record and ERA of 4.19 indicate he has struggled this season. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, but with a higher potential for improvement given his FIP of 3.63, which indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky.

Offensively, the Astros rank 20th in MLB while the Reds are positioned at 12th. Notably, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th, contrasting with the Astros’ struggles in that department. This discrepancy could be pivotal in a low-scoring game, especially as the Game Total sits at 7.5 runs.

Given Houston's status as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -170, their stronger starting pitcher and home-field advantage suggest they are poised to capitalize on this matchup and gain momentum heading into the series.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez's 76th percentile Walk% (6.8% this year) displays his strong control ability.

• One of the best indicators of future walks is past walks.

This season, Elly De La Cruz has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.3 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's matchup, Matt McLain is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a substantial edge over groundball hitters, Hunter Brown and his 49.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 games (+3.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.61, Houston Astros 4.37

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

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