Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jakob Junis - Reds
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on September 25, 2024, fans and bettors alike are keenly anticipating this interleague matchup. The Guardians have put together an impressive season with a 91-67 record. Currently enjoying a strong season, they are firmly in contention for the playoffs. On the other hand, the Reds have had a challenging year with a 76-82 record and are out of the playoff race.

In the first game of this series, the Guardians secured a win, reinforcing their status as the favorites heading into this matchup. The Guardians are backed by Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher, taking the mound. Although his record is a modest 2-3, his xFIP of 3.64 suggests he's been pitching better than his 4.63 ERA might indicate. Cleveland's offense, ranked 17th in Power Rankings, should provide solid run support.

The Reds counter with Jakob Junis, a right-hander who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 4-0 record and a stellar 2.61 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.89 implies he might have been lucky so far, and regression could be on the horizon. Additionally, Cincinnati's offense is ranked 16th, with noticeable weaknesses in batting average, where they rank a lowly 26th.

From a betting perspective, the Guardians are the favorites with a moneyline of -145, translating to an implied win probability of 57%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees more value in Cleveland, projecting their win probability at 62%. This suggests a potential opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Guardians' superior bullpen, ranked 7th compared to the Reds' struggling 25th.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Amed Rosario, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Joey Cantillo has averaged 83 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 20th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 132 games (+10.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.94 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.08

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