Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Rhett Lowder - Reds
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on September 10, 2024, both teams find themselves in mid-tier positions in the National League Central. The Cardinals hold a record of 72-71, while the Reds sit at 70-75. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they aim to finish the season strong, despite neither being in playoff contention.

In their last games, the Cardinals stumbled against the Seattle Mariners, losing 10-4, while the Reds enjoyed a narrow 1-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves, showcasing their ability to grind out wins even when the odds are against them. St. Louis will look to bounce back behind right-hander Andre Pallante, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season. Pallante ranks as the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a 4.07 ERA, and has struggled recently, allowing five earned runs in his last start on September 2.

In contrast, Cincinnati will counter with Rhett Lowder, who has shown flashes of promise with an exceptional 0.87 ERA, though advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a regression. The projections indicate that while Pallante is expected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, he may allow around 2.5 earned runs, which could be manageable against a Reds lineup that ranks just 16th in overall offense.

The Cardinals’ bullpen, ranked 6th best in MLB, could be a crucial factor, especially if Pallante falters early. With the Cardinals projected to score 4.52 runs and the Reds 4.16 runs according to the leading MLB projection system, St. Louis has a slight edge in terms of offensive potential. As this series begins, the stakes are high for the Cardinals to shift momentum and capitalize on their home advantage at Busch Stadium.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jake Fraley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.3° figure is among the highest in MLB this year (#2 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Tallying 92.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Andre Pallante places in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Paul Goldschmidt has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 145 games (+9.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+10.05 Units / 15% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.52

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