Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jakob Junis - Reds
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on September 12, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup, the Cardinals sit with a record of 73-72, while the Reds are struggling at 71-76. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, with the Cardinals experiencing an average season and the Reds falling below expectations.

In their last game, the Cardinals got a 2-1 win over Cincinnati. The Reds, meanwhile, have been buoyed by Jake Fraley's hot bat, as he recorded 8 hits over the past week, giving Cincinnati's lineup a much-needed boost. However, they still rank just 16th in overall offensive performance, with a troubling 26th in batting average.

On the mound, Sonny Gray is projected to start for the Cardinals, and he ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ERA sits at a solid 3.84, and he projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs today. Conversely, the Reds' Jakob Junis has an impressive 2.82 ERA, but the projections suggest potential regression, which could be a concern against a Cardinals offense that, while 20th overall, has the potential to capitalize on any mistakes.

THE BAT X projects the Cardinals as strong favorites for today's game, with an implied team total of 4.24 runs. With their ranking of 8th in bullpen strength, St. Louis appears to have the upper hand against Cincinnati’s struggling bullpen, which ranks 25th. As both teams look to improve their records, this matchup could significantly impact their season narratives.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jakob Junis is projected to throw 77 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-most of the day.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 74 of their last 128 games (+13.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 44 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.02 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.67

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