Jay Sanin on September 25, 2024
Jakob Junis projections, stats and prop bet odds for Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians on Sep 25, 2024
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luke Maile (the Reds's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as a weak pitch framer.
Progressive Field profiles as the #10 ballpark in baseball for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors.
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Jakob Junis in this game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
The Cleveland Guardians have been the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
Junior Valentine grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.
Among all major league parks, the 4th-highest fence height (on average) are at Progressive Field.
In his previous game started, Jakob Junis was in good form and conceded 1 ER.
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jakob Junis must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 58.6% of the time, checking in at the 76th percentile.
Jakob Junis is projected to have 2.5 Earned Runs in todays game.
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
Junior Valentine grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jakob Junis must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 58.6% of the time, checking in at the 76th percentile.
Jakob Junis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.97 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.89 — a 0.92 K/9 discrepancy.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jakob Junis to throw 72 pitches in this game (least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
The Cleveland Guardians (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luke Maile (the Reds's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as a weak pitch framer.
Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation generally leads to more offense.
The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Jakob Junis in this game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
Jakob Junis is projected to have 3.1 Strikeouts in todays game.
