Rays vs Brewers Player Props: Fade Misiorowski in World Series Game 1?
Updated October 21, 2026
Rays vs Brewers Game 1 Win Probability & Market Pricing
Updated October 21, 2026
The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in Game 1 of the 2026 World Series on Friday, October 23. First pitch is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at American Family Field, with the game airing on FOX.
Milwaukee enters the Fall Classic after sweeping the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, while Tampa Bay defeated the Cleveland Guardians in six games to claim the American League pennant. With neither franchise having won a World Series, we're now guaranteed a first-time champion in 2026.
Rather than picking a side or total, I'm focusing on a player prop where I see value in Friday's matchup: Jacob Misiorowski Under 6.5 strikeouts. Using our ATS Quantitative Model, advanced stats, and matchup trends, I'll explain why I'm fading Milwaukee's ace in Game 1.
Tampa Bay's Elite Contact Rate
The Rays finished the regular season with an MLB-low 18.8% strikeout rate and a 20.7% whiff rate, down from 23.1% and 25.7%, respectively, in 2025. They've consistently made contact all season, which could make it difficult for Misiorowski to reach seven strikeouts.
Declining Swing-and-Miss Numbers
Misiorowski's four-seam fastball whiff rate has fallen from 40% during the regular season to just 16% in the playoffs, while his overall whiff rate has dropped from 37.3% to 22.3%. That's concerning for a pitcher who throws his fastball more than 60% of the time.
High Pitch Counts, Short Outings
Misiorowski has needed 182 pitches to complete just 8⅓ postseason innings, averaging 21.8 pitches per inning. Opponents have fouled off 28% of his pitches, compared to 18.5% during the regular season. He's recorded six and five strikeouts in his two playoff starts, lasting four and 4⅓ innings, respectively.
Recommended Position:
Misiorowski 7+ Ks (No)
Current Price:
49¢
Model Probability:
55.8%
Market Probability:
49.0%
Model Edge:
+6.8%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Confidence:
78/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I know it's hard to fade arguably the best pitcher in baseball, especially someone who averaged over 1.4 strikeouts per inning this season. But seven strikeouts is a high bar against a contact-heavy lineup, and even a solid four- or five-inning outing could leave Misiorowski short of the number. At 49¢, our model gives the Under a 55.8% chance of hitting, creating a 6.8% edge that makes it an appealing play for Game 1.”
Jacob Misiorowski was one of baseball's most dominant pitchers in 2026, leading MLB with 252 strikeouts in 174⅔ innings across 30 starts. His 12.98 K/9 and 37.9% strikeout rate were both among the best in baseball, while he also led the majors with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.
He averaged 8.4 strikeouts per start, well above Friday's 6.5 line. Those numbers explain why fading Misiorowski is a tough pill to swallow, but they may also be driving up the price of the Over, creating value on the Under.
One of Misiorowski's biggest challenges Friday will be facing a Tampa Bay lineup that rarely strikes out. Yandy Díaz posted a 14.8% whiff rate during the regular season, while Chandler Simpson was even tougher to miss bats against at just 10.8%. Both were well below the MLB average whiff rate of roughly 25%.
The Rays also had the lowest two-strike whiff rate in baseball (21.0%) and averaged just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance, the second-fewest in MLB. Their aggressive approach could lead to more early-count contact, limiting Misiorowski's strikeout opportunities.
Misiorowski does have one advantage, though: Tampa Bay hasn't faced him this season, so its hitters won't have firsthand experience against his triple-digit fastball. Even so, Tampa Bay's ability to put the ball in play could make seven strikeouts difficult to reach.
Misiorowski relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it more than 60% of the time at an average of 100.6 mph during the regular season. He also mixes in a cutter (14.0% usage), slider (10.8%), and curveball (10.7%). His velocity has remained above 100 mph in the playoffs, but hitters have made more contact against his fastball.
Through two postseason starts this year, Misiorowski has recorded 11 strikeouts in 8⅓ innings. He struck out six Padres in four innings during the NLDS, followed by five Dodgers in 4⅓ innings during the NLCS. Neither outing cleared Friday's 6.5-strikeout line.
In the 2025 playoffs, Misiorowski recorded 16 strikeouts in 12 innings across three appearances, primarily as a reliever. His only outing with seven or more strikeouts came against the Dodgers, when he recorded nine in five innings. Overall, he's cleared 6.5 strikeouts in just one of five career postseason appearances.
Misiorowski will enter Game 1 with 11 days of rest, so fatigue shouldn't be a major concern. That could work against the Under, as Milwaukee should have no reason to limit his workload.
However, the Brewers have a rested bullpen after sweeping the Dodgers in the NLCS. Milwaukee's bullpen finished the regular season with a collective 3.22 ERA, the second-best in MLB.
With those options available, manager Pat Murphy won't need to push Misiorowski deep into the game. If his pitch count climbs early, Milwaukee could turn to its bullpen before he reaches seven strikeouts.
Want to know which team our ATS Quantitative Model favors in Game 1? Check out our Rays vs Brewers prediction for a full breakdown. You can also take a look at our latest MLB player prop predictions for more picks throughout the World Series.
