Flyers vs Sabres Player Props: Thompson Takes Aim at Philly

Thompson has registered 42 shots through nine games this season, averaging 4.7 per appearance. He's also scored five goals, continuing the impressive production that saw him finish last season with 40 goals in 81 games.

His shooting volume is particularly encouraging.

Thompson consistently generates scoring opportunities, whether playing at even strength or on the power play. He's also coming off a goal against Montreal, where Buffalo suffered a 4-3 overtime defeat on Saturday.

Philadelphia looks like a reasonable opponent, too.

The Flyers endured a nine-game winless start before finally beating Ottawa and Colorado. Their defensive performances have improved recently, however, with just three goals conceded across those two victories.

That's worth considering before assuming Thompson will have another productive evening.

The bigger question is his market price.

Polymarket US recently displayed Thompson to score at least one goal at 42¢, corresponding to a 42% implied probability before trading costs.

That isn't necessarily unreasonable for a player with his scoring record, but it doesn't automatically represent value, either.

Matvei Michkov might be the most exciting player entering Wednesday.

The Flyers winger has scored four goals in his last three games, including two against Colorado on Monday. Philadelphia's offense has struggled throughout October, but Michkov is finally providing some much-needed finishing.

However, his recent scoring rate has been exceptional relative to his shooting volume.

That's the difficulty with these markets. A player can be in outstanding form without necessarily representing an attractive trading opportunity.

Michkov's 1+ goal contract was recently quoted at 28¢ on Polymarket US, while Trevor Zegras was available at the same price.

Both are considerably cheaper than Thompson, but lower prices don't automatically mean better value.

My preferred player to monitor remains Thompson.

His established scoring record, sustained shooting volume and offensive responsibilities make him a compelling candidate against Philadelphia.

However, I'm not convinced there's enough evidence to recommend entering at 42¢ without a more detailed assessment of his scoring probability.

Philadelphia's recent defensive improvement also deserves respect, particularly after limiting Colorado to two goals.

The sensible approach is to monitor Thompson's price rather than assume his strong recent production makes any entry worthwhile.