Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Mason Black - Giants

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the San Francisco Giants will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Oracle Park on May 11, 2024. The Giants, who currently hold a record of 17-22, are having a tough season. On the other hand, the Reds, with a record of 16-21, are also struggling.

The Giants, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their fans at Oracle Park. The Reds, the away team, will have to bring their A-game to overcome the home-field advantage.

Both teams will be sending promising pitchers to the mound. The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mason Black, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Black is ranked as the #184 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds will rely on left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been performing exceptionally well. Lodolo is ranked as the #28 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings.

Black has started one game this year and has a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA stands at a high 10.38, indicating a struggle on the mound. However, his 5.98 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve going forward. Lodolo, with five starts this season, boasts a record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.79. While his 3.34 xERA indicates some regression may be expected, his performance has been solid overall.

The Giants offense ranks as the #21 best in MLB this season, while the Reds offense ranks at #26. The Giants have been struggling in several offensive categories, including team batting average and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Reds have shown some strength in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking #14 and #1, respectively.

In terms of the bullpen, the Giants have the #1 ranked bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Reds rank at #24. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, both teams have a low implied team total of 3.75 runs, indicating that a close game is expected. However, according to the projections, Lodolo has the advantage with a higher strikeout rate, facing a Giants offense that ranks #4 in strikeouts.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has tallied 17.4 outs per start this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Elly De La Cruz's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Cincinnati Reds have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mason Black in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .324 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .220.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 121 games (+24.47 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 away games (+20.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.38 vs San Francisco Giants 4.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.