Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Pick For 5/31/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in a National League Central matchup. The Cubs, with a season record of 28-29, are having an average season, while the Reds, with a record of 24-32, are struggling with a bad season.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Javier Assad, who has been performing well this year. Assad has started 11 games, with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.17. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft, who has a record of 4-3 and an average ERA of 4.67. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ashcraft is considered an average pitcher.

The Cubs offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Reds offense ranks as the 27th best. However, the Cubs have a higher team batting average and stolen bases ranking, while the Reds excel in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs to have a 54% win probability, making this a close game.

The Cubs' best hitter this season has been Ian Happ, who has been on a hot streak over the last seven games. The Reds' best hitter during this period has been Will Benson, who has shown power with two home runs and a high OPS.

In this matchup, Assad, a high-walk pitcher, will face a patient Reds offense that ranks sixth in walks. This could give the Reds an advantage, as they have the opportunity to draw walks against Assad.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to the average hurler, Graham Ashcraft has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has utilized his sinker 5% more often this year (34.8%) than he did last year (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

This season, there has been a decline in Nico Hoerner's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.54 ft/sec last year to 27.95 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yan Gomes (the Cubs's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+12.05 Units / 46% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.47 vs Chicago Cubs 4.56

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