Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/21/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 125, Phillies -1.5 -150
• Money Line: White Sox 260, Phillies -310
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 27%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 73%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 28.49%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 71.51%

Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 21, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a record of 13-8, are having a great season, while the White Sox, with a record of 3-17, are struggling. As the home team, the Phillies will look to capitalize on their strong performance.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola, who has been performing well this season. In his four starts, Nola has a win-loss record of 2-1 with an impressive ERA of 3.47. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nola is considered one of the top 75 starting pitchers in MLB, indicating his above-average performance. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests that he may regress slightly in future games.

The White Sox will counter with right-handed pitcher Nick Nastrini, who has struggled this season. Nastrini has started one game and has a win-loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 3.60. Our projections indicate that Nastrini is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, and his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he may continue to struggle going forward.

In terms of offense, the Phillies have been performing better than the White Sox. The Phillies rank 22nd in MLB in overall offense, while the White Sox rank last. The Phillies have a strong batting average, ranking 8th in the league, and are ranked 10th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the White Sox rank poorly in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

Considering the overall performance of both teams, the Phillies are heavily favored in this matchup. The implied win probability for the Phillies is 72%, while the White Sox have an implied win probability of 28%. The Phillies also have a higher projected team total of 4.68 runs compared to the White Sox's 2.82 runs.

With Aaron Nola on the mound, the Phillies have a strong chance of securing a victory. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. As the game unfolds, fans will be eagerly watching to see if the Phillies can extend their successful season or if the White Sox can turn their fortunes around.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among every team in action today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox projected batting order grades out as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Trea Turner has been hot recently, cracking 2 homers in the past week.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 127 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 139 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)

White Sox vs Phillies Prediction: White Sox 3.3 - Phillies 5.06

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