Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 6/2/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On June 2, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Chicago White Sox at American Family Field. As the home team, the Brewers will look to extend their impressive season record of 35-23, while the struggling White Sox aim to improve their 15-44 record. This interleague matchup promises an intriguing battle between two teams with contrasting performances this season.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who has been a standout performer and is ranked as the sixth-best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Peralta has started 11 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.61. Despite his solid numbers, his 3.11 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward. Peralta is expected to pitch around 6.2 innings, allowing an average of 1.6 earned runs and striking out 8.0 batters per game.

On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Nastrini, who has struggled this season. Nastrini has started four games, with a win/loss record of 0-4 and an alarming ERA of 9.92. His 7.14 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings. Nastrini is expected to pitch around 4.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.1 batters per game.

The Brewers boast the third-best offense in MLB this season, despite ranking low in team batting average and home runs. Their ability to steal bases, ranking 10th in the league, adds another dimension to their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled offensively, ranking last in MLB. Their low team batting average and lack of power have contributed to their struggles this season.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Brewers have the ninth-best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the White Sox rank near the bottom at 26th. This could give the Brewers an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers are heavily favored to win with a moneyline of -295, implying a 72% win probability. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +250, indicating a 28% win probability. The Brewers have a high implied team total of 5.03 runs, while the White Sox have a low implied team total of 2.97 runs.

Overall, the Brewers have been having a great season, while the White Sox have struggled. With their strong pitching, solid offense, and favorable odds, the Brewers are in a strong position to secure a victory in this game. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all SPs, Nick Nastrini's fastball spin rate of 2385 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Paul DeJong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 6.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 32 games (+2.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 2.63 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.15

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