Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 6/1/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Robert Gasser - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Chicago White Sox at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 34-23, are having a great season, while the struggling White Sox hold a record of 15-43. This Interleague matchup will feature two left-handed pitchers, Robert Gasser for the Brewers and Garrett Crochet for the White Sox.

Gasser, ranked as the #122 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been performing below average this season. However, his record stands at 2-0 with an impressive ERA of 1.96. Although his xFIP suggests he may not sustain this level of performance, Gasser is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow an average of 2.0 earned runs.

Crochet, on the other hand, is considered an elite pitcher, ranking as the #10 best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite a record of 5-5, he has maintained a solid ERA of 3.68. His xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward. Crochet is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow an average of 1.9 earned runs.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the #4 best team in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks low at #27. On the other side, the White Sox have struggled offensively, ranking as the #30 team in MLB.

Considering the projections and the team's performance, the Brewers are favored to win with an implied win probability of 58%. Their average implied team total is 4.08 runs. The White Sox, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 42% and a very low implied team total of 3.42 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Garrett Crochet will rack up an average of 14.8 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Andrew Vaughn's footspeed has improved this season. His 25.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.27 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Chicago White Sox have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser today, which is especially troublesome given his huge platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz's true offensive ability to be a .306, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .076 gap between that figure and his actual .382 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 24 away games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.8 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.